Thursday, November 15, 2007

Was Danie Krugel right?

Well this is interesting.

It seems that bone fragments have been unearthed less than a kilometer from Gert van Rooyen's former residence in Pretoria.

They're still being tested to see of they are human, and, if so, if they belong to any of his missing victims.

Danie Krugel, after using his magic quantum machine, predicted that the girls' bodies were buried within a few Kilometers of van Rooyen's former home. Before anyone gets all excited about this being a vindication of Danie's magic box, let's put this into context.

Firstly, do any amount of digging in an urban area that has been occupied for several decades, and it would be surprising not to find any bone fragments. People eat animals, the bones of which sometimes end up being buried (by pet dogs, for instance). People's pets die, and are frequently buried in the back yard. Your average back yard probably contains several bones that, upon first glance, could be thought to resemble human.

So the chances of these particular bones turning out to be human are probably pretty slim. The contractors digging the swimming pool most likely wouldn't have given the fragments a second thought if they weren't aware of Danie Krugel's predictions (thanks to that pillar of journalistic integrity: Carte Blanche). But, we'll only know for sure once they've been tested.

If the bones turn out to be human I suppose there's a good chance they might belong to at least one of his victims. Human bones are generally not strewn about willy-nilly. If that turns out to be the case, however, it still doesn't mean that Krugel's machine works.

Why not? Simple logic.

As an experienced policeman, Krugel would, no doubt, be aware that murderers of this sort tend to dispose of the bodies near their homes. Any regular viewer of CSI would be aware of this tendency. His making that prediction says nothing about his magic box, and rather merely demonstrates that Krugel himself is an adequately skilled detective.

If Krugel's box had predicted the location of the bones to within a few metres (say, less than twenty) that would certainly lend support to his claims. But he didn't. He predicted a radius of several Kilometers. That's not a hit.

Danie: even if you turned out to be right this time, and manage to impress the credulous producers and viewers of Carte Blanche, you'll need to do better than that in order to really prove the efficacy of your little contraption.

Have you found little Maddie yet? Nope.

Have you even tried to look for little Londiwe yet? I have no idea, but I'm guessing no.

Do better.

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